I generally tread clear of the Capital’s lecture and talk-show circuit. But, yesterday I accidentally gate-crashed into one. The occasion was the launch of the Business Standard India 2009 – a collection of essays on contemporary economic issues facing the country.
In a gathering of very distinguished economists and policy makers, as a part of the panel chaired Montek Singh Ahluwalia and T N Ninan as moderator - Bimal Jalan, the former RBI Governor, was at his provocative best. He was reveling in baiting the media, who he accused of over-selling the India Inc Rising story. He argued that, it wasn’t that the Indian economy that was running too fast but the Indian Stock Market that was being driven recklessly. When the real economic growth was at 13% - fuelled by tax arbitrage, the stock
market was giving returns of 80% - but no one questioned the disconnect. We can excuse a Sarah Palin – who had never seen India on the map – wanting to invest in India because she saw India all over the media but we should have known better, he joked. He also had a dig at the “entrepreneur” (no prizes for guessing) known to run a half-marathon every morning, who had raised Rs 20,000 crores from the market even before he finished his morning jog. When you run that fast there is always a risk of tripping and a correction was just waiting to happen. He chided the media for, having created euphoria earlier, now going to the other extreme predicting a dismal doomsday scenario.
Listening to Dr Jalan’s, I wondered if the media itself had fallen prey to the tales of its own creation. Over the last few days – everyone I have met from the print industry – be it from editorial or marketing - have been complaining how bad things are. And till the other day, media houses – new and old – were going about their business like there was no tomorrow.
This adventurism was not just restricted to starting new editions or jacking up circulation. There was actually serious money being put on the block in the form of investments in Fixed Assets (expensive high-speed printing presses) most of it funded by borrowings (except perhaps ToI who have always been known to sit on a mountain of cash reserves).
Add to that, the increase in pagination, internecine circulation wars (my ‘pet peeve’ of deep discounted - gift subscription offers), rampant under-cutting of ad-rates, over-the-top salaries of the new ‘whiz-kids’ on the block, across the board salary hikes and increased over-heads – you have the perfect story of cost-structure and business model going awry. And, if all this was being done with an eye on increasing company valuations for potential PE investors – someone got the math wrong – just as Dr Jalan said last evening.
The crash of the ad markets have really turned the screws on (even with softening of news-print prices), especially for the newbies and also some of the oldies who had taken a quick shot of viagra to feel young. By one account two of the new entrants in the Mumbai market were losing anything between Rs 50 to 100 crores per annum (depending on whose estimate you chose to believe). Despite drop in pagination and cutting down on print-order, thru’ non renewal of subscriptions etc they would find it difficult to sustain such high levels of “investments” (read
‘losses’) without big-time value-destruction, if the mother ship itself is under pressure. While those in it for the long-haul would definitely weather the storm – it’s those who were in the short term “valuation” game who would face the real heat.
So what’s the way forward? On the flight back from Delhi, I was reading in the TIME magazine how the Italian government has thrown a bail-out package for the cheese industry in the country. The government is buying 200,000 wheels of Parmigiano – Reggiano Grana Padano to be donated to charity. Possibly Mr Ahluwalia can take a leaf out of that book and devise a similar scheme for the Indian newspaper industry. It might make perfect economic sense – giving away free newspapers with free ads – to boost consumer demand. But, there’s just one glitch – thanks to the freebie offers very few people in India pay for newspapers anyway!!
In a gathering of very distinguished economists and policy makers, as a part of the panel chaired Montek Singh Ahluwalia and T N Ninan as moderator - Bimal Jalan, the former RBI Governor, was at his provocative best. He was reveling in baiting the media, who he accused of over-selling the India Inc Rising story. He argued that, it wasn’t that the Indian economy that was running too fast but the Indian Stock Market that was being driven recklessly. When the real economic growth was at 13% - fuelled by tax arbitrage, the stock
market was giving returns of 80% - but no one questioned the disconnect. We can excuse a Sarah Palin – who had never seen India on the map – wanting to invest in India because she saw India all over the media but we should have known better, he joked. He also had a dig at the “entrepreneur” (no prizes for guessing) known to run a half-marathon every morning, who had raised Rs 20,000 crores from the market even before he finished his morning jog. When you run that fast there is always a risk of tripping and a correction was just waiting to happen. He chided the media for, having created euphoria earlier, now going to the other extreme predicting a dismal doomsday scenario.Listening to Dr Jalan’s, I wondered if the media itself had fallen prey to the tales of its own creation. Over the last few days – everyone I have met from the print industry – be it from editorial or marketing - have been complaining how bad things are. And till the other day, media houses – new and old – were going about their business like there was no tomorrow.
This adventurism was not just restricted to starting new editions or jacking up circulation. There was actually serious money being put on the block in the form of investments in Fixed Assets (expensive high-speed printing presses) most of it funded by borrowings (except perhaps ToI who have always been known to sit on a mountain of cash reserves).
Add to that, the increase in pagination, internecine circulation wars (my ‘pet peeve’ of deep discounted - gift subscription offers), rampant under-cutting of ad-rates, over-the-top salaries of the new ‘whiz-kids’ on the block, across the board salary hikes and increased over-heads – you have the perfect story of cost-structure and business model going awry. And, if all this was being done with an eye on increasing company valuations for potential PE investors – someone got the math wrong – just as Dr Jalan said last evening.
The crash of the ad markets have really turned the screws on (even with softening of news-print prices), especially for the newbies and also some of the oldies who had taken a quick shot of viagra to feel young. By one account two of the new entrants in the Mumbai market were losing anything between Rs 50 to 100 crores per annum (depending on whose estimate you chose to believe). Despite drop in pagination and cutting down on print-order, thru’ non renewal of subscriptions etc they would find it difficult to sustain such high levels of “investments” (read
‘losses’) without big-time value-destruction, if the mother ship itself is under pressure. While those in it for the long-haul would definitely weather the storm – it’s those who were in the short term “valuation” game who would face the real heat.
So what’s the way forward? On the flight back from Delhi, I was reading in the TIME magazine how the Italian government has thrown a bail-out package for the cheese industry in the country. The government is buying 200,000 wheels of Parmigiano – Reggiano Grana Padano to be donated to charity. Possibly Mr Ahluwalia can take a leaf out of that book and devise a similar scheme for the Indian newspaper industry. It might make perfect economic sense – giving away free newspapers with free ads – to boost consumer demand. But, there’s just one glitch – thanks to the freebie offers very few people in India pay for newspapers anyway!!
Post-Script: Hopefully, after this crisis the Indian newspaper companies would find renewed merit in the age-old wisdom of having a more 'balanced' adverisement to circultion revenues ratio, which had historically helped them cushion the effects of cyclical downturns in advertisement. Till then, of course, the big consulting firms (Mckinsey, E & Y, PwC, Accenture etc) would make their pile doing 'cost-restructuring' exercises for the industry. Some I'm told are already on the job.
3 comments:
Would have been nice if Mr Jalan also noted how India's then Finance Minister P. Chidambaram talked up that particular IPO, something that no finance minister has probably ever done in India's history. Or the fact that on the dias was Mr Ahluwalia who conveniently drops out of public sight whenever there is a major controversy or problem of any kind, especially an economic one, surfacing a few days later when the coast is clear to then issue headline-hogging statements. The media is everyone's favorite whipping boy, and in India, quite deservedly so, but some of these thought leaders could use mirrors to reflect on their own behavior in tough times.
So the media is now responsible for the meltdown, is it? I agree that there were a lot of gaps in the media's coverage of the economy during the growth phase, but to blame the bull run of the century on media hype is a tad over the top.
As to part two of your post, well, despite the abundance of economic analysts available under their own roof, I have never heard of any media house consulting them when they formulated their business strategies! Since you have been in the media business yourself, you are aware of the wide difference between the popular perception (that media=journalists) and the reality!
The current alarm and pessimism gripping media managements is a direct outcome of some poorly thought-out decisions of the past. Much of the trouble the media business is currently facing can be attributed to some pretty ordinary decision-making and not on the meltdown as such, which is still a way off from becoming a recession - in India at least!
Post a Comment